I have been holding my breath, trying to reconcile Francisco’s analyses with the apparent dramatic B2 bombing that Trump sent to Iran on Saturday. But now I think you are correct about everything Francisco. Trump’s leadership is all Kayfabe.
Earlier this morning, I listened to Reza Pahlavi’s press conference with soaring hope. Then within hours, I watched Qatar save the Mullahs, and Trump sign on to that save.
As Nevil Cohen alluded in his comment posted a few hours before this one: Where is the fissile material? We know, for example that there is a railway line between Iran and China. (I hope Israel thought about bombing it...)
Francisco, I look forward to your synthesis of these events with your usual depth and clarity. I interpret Trump’s most recent tweet as “enthusiastically encouraging Israel” to quit before it has a chance to win. If only Moshe Feiglin were prime minister.
I have the benefit of only reading this today, Monday 23rd June, 2 days after US bombers seemingly destroyed Iran's nuclear threat. Outwardly Trump seems to have been forced, probably by Israel telling him they could do this with an aerial and boots-on-the-ground approach if necessary, to bring America into the war and has duly bombed 3 nuclear targets, Fordow being the big prize. What's more, he acted very quickly after setting himself up for another 2-week time delay.
In the light of what you've been saying up to now, something seems amiss.
Trump has been trying to stall this process as you keep pointing out. But he's dealing with Israel and more especially Mossad. If it took you only 2 weeks to work this out in the library of your facility, how can it not be that Israel is more than aware of the shenanigans that are continuously taking place? Given that they've needed America's UN veto, arms, and the cash flow from generous benefactors, they could hardly make the US an enemy at any time. You have yourself mentioned that Israeli leadership is a mystery to you other than possibly being corrupt.
So what if all this time they've been playing the US and milking them for whatever they can get out of them? Netanyahu has also been going out of his way to continuously stroke Trump's ego. Even now there are billboards up thanking President Trump for bombing the sites. In any other situation, Netanyahu is the one to grab the limelight but now he defers it to Israel's "greatest friend."
Further, Israel is being very pragmatic about pursuing their solution to this scenario by not giving Trump the time he's been trying to milk from the system. As soon as the 60 days were up they began mixing it with Iran. But even during those 60 days and before, there has been a concerted effort to weaken the proxies one by one, to the point that they had a clear run at Iran when the time came.
Two more thoughts that may be worth considering.
Firstly, the IAEA reported no sign of radiation from the bombing of Fordow. Does that perhaps mean that the bombs did not penetrate deeply enough to decommission the plant? Trump is bragging about the brilliant performance of US weapons and the greatest airmen in the World blah, blah. Is it not just a coverup and all is still possible? If not now, in a relatively short time? Israel may think it possible as today they were back at Fordow dropping bombs on the facility. We have also heard reports that movement had been seen from Fordow a few days previous to the bombings where it appears highly probable that trucks were moving out the enriched Uranium for storage elsewhere.
Secondly, and my final point, compares to your summing up of America's campaign against Hitler's Germany during WWII. Only after Germany was well beaten at Kursk did the US and Britain put their heads together and come up with the Normandy Campaign. At that point in history, if you had published your hypothesis, they surely would have committed you to an asylum. What if Trump can see that Iran is a lost cause and he wants his legacy to be on the right side of history? The fight against Israel is temporarily suspended until a new plan can be concocted.
I agree! Netanyahu should use nuclear weapons to destroy Fordow. And the EMP option to paralyze Iran and allow it's people to rise and depose the jihadi regime.
Will he? Has he become the leader he pretends to be? I doubt it.
From what I have read the Ayatolla and his supportive Islamists Jihadists are fairly weakened by Israel's brave courageous actions. It is time for the Iranian people to rid themselves of the Islamic Regime who have brutally suppressed their freedom for too long. The US has allowed this awful situation to fester and grow over decades now. Certainly, the Jihadists will continue with the help of the Left. This weird ideology is now part of many countries. Israel needs to destroy Fordo to complete destroy the nuclear threat from Iran. We are unsure if that can be done by Israel alone. Europe has allowed too many immigrants to enter with the same warped ideology. The US has many people who are anti-Israel because of the Media's portraying Israel as the aggressors after October 7. The Universities will continue to hate Israel even if they don't target civilians. Jihadists will continue to Hate Jews and the Left is enabling this. Thank you, Francisco, to alerting us to the illusions and contradictions in what we are observing.
I agree that we should be watching what Trump does rather than what he says. And it's likely that you're right - "everything Donald Trump does is State behavior."
But so far every point you brought up to show that he is not really supporting Israel is based on what he is SAYING.
And I'm not criticizing that. It's devilishly hard to figure out what -- if anything -- he is actually DOING.
Is he "rushing to save the ayatollahs"? Or is he just rushing to talk about it?
He talks about a lot of things that clearly didn't and won't happen... Closing "a deal" with Iran (they said 'you're kidding, right?'). Ending Israel's military operation (it's still going strong). Recruiting Putin to mediate peace between Iran and Israel (Putin politely backed away). Saving the "Iranian Empire" (there never was such a thing to begin with). Nor was there any such thing as a "brutal slaughter" on Iranian soil by Israel.
So yeah, he threatened Iran personally with destruction, and that didn't happen either. Except that it did, through Israel. And as an Israeli, I don't like him taking credit for it. But OTOH he didn't do anything to stop us. So far.
Maybe Deep State can run circles around us, but Trump is TALKING in circles! He gives me a headache.
Well, I beg to differ. I gave a long list of things that Trump is doing, as I have in other articles.
It is true that a good part of this article focused on what Trump says. But then I showed that he went through and did what he said. He said he wanted to save the "Iranian Empire" and then he tried to set up a negotiation meeting with the Iranians so they can cry Uncle and he can stop the Israelis.
Moreover, sometimes what you say is an action. And this was a case in point.
First, telling the whole world that Israel is supposedly conducting a brutal slaughter is an act of psychological warfare against Israel, with very real world consequences.
And, in the context of this war, for Trump to announce that he will stop the Israelis if the Iranians agree to negotiate--that's an action too: it is an act of diplomacy that can have very serious consequences if the ayatollahs grasp at Trump's lifesaver.
But the problem the ayatollahs have right now is internal. They have to move within their own grammar, and there are lots of true, true believers there who, right now, probably cannot countenance a surrender to the 'Zionist Entity.' Not until they are entirely broken. They are jihadists, after all.
Well, it's a week later, and Trump finally did something that I can understand. I'm looking back at his trail of... whatever that was... and scratching my head. Was he just pretending to run off his mouth? He certainly was misdirecting someone. Only it doesn't look like he was playing the Israelis after all; rather, he was playing the mullahs.
For me, "Is Trump for real?" is still an open question.
To your final point, an interesting one: Yeah, Khamenei is still alive - and of course he will never surrender. But denying him the 'glory of martyrdom' is another smart move that no one appreciates unless they know Muslim culture. For the jihadis, death in battle is the best fate. The absolute worst fate is to be humiliated by the enemy, see everything they believed in turn to dust, and then be left to deal with it.
Israeli intel is saying that Khamenei had a mental breakdown in his bunker and is likely to give irrational orders. Maybe today's attack on the soil of Qatar, their only Arab ally, was one of those.
for sure Trump is seemingly doing very little to help Israel. His propaganda team is pushing the 'we can't fight for the Jews' mantra instead of the more accurate 'we screwed Iranians in 1979, and now we're going to help make things right'. The US would sacrifice soldiers for the liberation of Iraqi islamists--but not for Iranians. And most people are too ignorant to understand any of this...
How is such a Witkoff-brokered ceasefire not a surrender to the 2-state scheming i.e. Israel’s demise?
As Francisco Gil-White has hypothesized, both Trump and Netanyahu are suspect.
https://www.jfeed.com/news-israel/us-israel-peace-plan-gaza-abraham-accords
Now its a cease fire.
I have been holding my breath, trying to reconcile Francisco’s analyses with the apparent dramatic B2 bombing that Trump sent to Iran on Saturday. But now I think you are correct about everything Francisco. Trump’s leadership is all Kayfabe.
Earlier this morning, I listened to Reza Pahlavi’s press conference with soaring hope. Then within hours, I watched Qatar save the Mullahs, and Trump sign on to that save.
As Nevil Cohen alluded in his comment posted a few hours before this one: Where is the fissile material? We know, for example that there is a railway line between Iran and China. (I hope Israel thought about bombing it...)
Francisco, I look forward to your synthesis of these events with your usual depth and clarity. I interpret Trump’s most recent tweet as “enthusiastically encouraging Israel” to quit before it has a chance to win. If only Moshe Feiglin were prime minister.
I have the benefit of only reading this today, Monday 23rd June, 2 days after US bombers seemingly destroyed Iran's nuclear threat. Outwardly Trump seems to have been forced, probably by Israel telling him they could do this with an aerial and boots-on-the-ground approach if necessary, to bring America into the war and has duly bombed 3 nuclear targets, Fordow being the big prize. What's more, he acted very quickly after setting himself up for another 2-week time delay.
In the light of what you've been saying up to now, something seems amiss.
Trump has been trying to stall this process as you keep pointing out. But he's dealing with Israel and more especially Mossad. If it took you only 2 weeks to work this out in the library of your facility, how can it not be that Israel is more than aware of the shenanigans that are continuously taking place? Given that they've needed America's UN veto, arms, and the cash flow from generous benefactors, they could hardly make the US an enemy at any time. You have yourself mentioned that Israeli leadership is a mystery to you other than possibly being corrupt.
So what if all this time they've been playing the US and milking them for whatever they can get out of them? Netanyahu has also been going out of his way to continuously stroke Trump's ego. Even now there are billboards up thanking President Trump for bombing the sites. In any other situation, Netanyahu is the one to grab the limelight but now he defers it to Israel's "greatest friend."
Further, Israel is being very pragmatic about pursuing their solution to this scenario by not giving Trump the time he's been trying to milk from the system. As soon as the 60 days were up they began mixing it with Iran. But even during those 60 days and before, there has been a concerted effort to weaken the proxies one by one, to the point that they had a clear run at Iran when the time came.
Two more thoughts that may be worth considering.
Firstly, the IAEA reported no sign of radiation from the bombing of Fordow. Does that perhaps mean that the bombs did not penetrate deeply enough to decommission the plant? Trump is bragging about the brilliant performance of US weapons and the greatest airmen in the World blah, blah. Is it not just a coverup and all is still possible? If not now, in a relatively short time? Israel may think it possible as today they were back at Fordow dropping bombs on the facility. We have also heard reports that movement had been seen from Fordow a few days previous to the bombings where it appears highly probable that trucks were moving out the enriched Uranium for storage elsewhere.
Secondly, and my final point, compares to your summing up of America's campaign against Hitler's Germany during WWII. Only after Germany was well beaten at Kursk did the US and Britain put their heads together and come up with the Normandy Campaign. At that point in history, if you had published your hypothesis, they surely would have committed you to an asylum. What if Trump can see that Iran is a lost cause and he wants his legacy to be on the right side of history? The fight against Israel is temporarily suspended until a new plan can be concocted.
Make sense?
https://x.com/joelpollak/status/1935779585561366650?s=48&t=2uaUVKQ1K0CJm2bVWDrmpQ
Here is Victor Davis Hanson stating clearly the necessary Jacksonian approach to Iran:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6K_ofjVMGM
He's a big fan of Trump, so this is a litmus test...will Trump do the right thing this time?
Thanks as always Francisco. Buying
all you say. But let’s go beyond Drumpf’s Orwellian Deep State
duplicity. For it is Israel, (tragically
ever ultimately spineless Netanyahu’s
Israel), that holds the supreme card
now in this war. That is Israel’s nuclear, neutron bomb, and EMP
arsenal, which is absolutely capable of both totally wiping out Iran in twenty minutes: and alternatively
with its constrained use of Tactical
Nukes, Neutron bombs, and Electro
Magnetic Pulse weapons: can wipe
out top to bottom both the entire regime and all of its Nuclear weapons
establishment, including sub-mountainous Fordow, making it
radioactive for a thousand years.
The only real super imperative
existential question is whether the
heretofore ever buckling and Israel
betraying Netanyahu, whether by
design, inertia, or divine providence
has become the leader he has always
pretended to be. And has found the
will to use these weapons to truly
save Israel for generations, rewrite
the whole Middle Eastern, and
world wide Jewish status equation.
Trump be damned. Netanyahu has
the world’s fourth biggest Nuclear
Arsenal on Earth at his command.
He has the additional option of letting
Trump know in the absence of U.S.
Bunker Busters, he is going to use it.
And then in the case of refusal does
immediately use Israel’s nuclear
arsenal, thus guaranteeing Israel’s
Real Unconditional Victory, With all
of its wonderful consequences.
I can hear all the gasps and vapors and see all the world’s pearl clutching
But none of them matter a tinker’s
damn. And Israel will finally have
become a truly Victorious Sovereign
Nation. Trump and his evil empire
made irrelevant in determining the
Jewish People’s fate. We owe the
rest of the World absolutely nothing
and ourselves everything. When Israel is led, willing, to do everything and anything necessary to destroy its openly genocidal enemies,
as the Torah commands,
No one else stands a chance,
.
I agree! Netanyahu should use nuclear weapons to destroy Fordow. And the EMP option to paralyze Iran and allow it's people to rise and depose the jihadi regime.
Will he? Has he become the leader he pretends to be? I doubt it.
Delighted to have your response Francisco. I pray,
despite our mutual profound
contempt for Netanyahu; Affairs will transcendently be taken out of his abject hands. And Israel in this war will find
its spine and unconditional victory.
Prevailing over all insidious and
huge countervailing
forces.
From what I have read the Ayatolla and his supportive Islamists Jihadists are fairly weakened by Israel's brave courageous actions. It is time for the Iranian people to rid themselves of the Islamic Regime who have brutally suppressed their freedom for too long. The US has allowed this awful situation to fester and grow over decades now. Certainly, the Jihadists will continue with the help of the Left. This weird ideology is now part of many countries. Israel needs to destroy Fordo to complete destroy the nuclear threat from Iran. We are unsure if that can be done by Israel alone. Europe has allowed too many immigrants to enter with the same warped ideology. The US has many people who are anti-Israel because of the Media's portraying Israel as the aggressors after October 7. The Universities will continue to hate Israel even if they don't target civilians. Jihadists will continue to Hate Jews and the Left is enabling this. Thank you, Francisco, to alerting us to the illusions and contradictions in what we are observing.
You are most welcome. Please share widely.
I agree that we should be watching what Trump does rather than what he says. And it's likely that you're right - "everything Donald Trump does is State behavior."
But so far every point you brought up to show that he is not really supporting Israel is based on what he is SAYING.
And I'm not criticizing that. It's devilishly hard to figure out what -- if anything -- he is actually DOING.
Is he "rushing to save the ayatollahs"? Or is he just rushing to talk about it?
He talks about a lot of things that clearly didn't and won't happen... Closing "a deal" with Iran (they said 'you're kidding, right?'). Ending Israel's military operation (it's still going strong). Recruiting Putin to mediate peace between Iran and Israel (Putin politely backed away). Saving the "Iranian Empire" (there never was such a thing to begin with). Nor was there any such thing as a "brutal slaughter" on Iranian soil by Israel.
So yeah, he threatened Iran personally with destruction, and that didn't happen either. Except that it did, through Israel. And as an Israeli, I don't like him taking credit for it. But OTOH he didn't do anything to stop us. So far.
Maybe Deep State can run circles around us, but Trump is TALKING in circles! He gives me a headache.
Thanks for your comment, Hannah.
Well, I beg to differ. I gave a long list of things that Trump is doing, as I have in other articles.
It is true that a good part of this article focused on what Trump says. But then I showed that he went through and did what he said. He said he wanted to save the "Iranian Empire" and then he tried to set up a negotiation meeting with the Iranians so they can cry Uncle and he can stop the Israelis.
Moreover, sometimes what you say is an action. And this was a case in point.
First, telling the whole world that Israel is supposedly conducting a brutal slaughter is an act of psychological warfare against Israel, with very real world consequences.
And, in the context of this war, for Trump to announce that he will stop the Israelis if the Iranians agree to negotiate--that's an action too: it is an act of diplomacy that can have very serious consequences if the ayatollahs grasp at Trump's lifesaver.
But the problem the ayatollahs have right now is internal. They have to move within their own grammar, and there are lots of true, true believers there who, right now, probably cannot countenance a surrender to the 'Zionist Entity.' Not until they are entirely broken. They are jihadists, after all.
Well, it's a week later, and Trump finally did something that I can understand. I'm looking back at his trail of... whatever that was... and scratching my head. Was he just pretending to run off his mouth? He certainly was misdirecting someone. Only it doesn't look like he was playing the Israelis after all; rather, he was playing the mullahs.
For me, "Is Trump for real?" is still an open question.
To your final point, an interesting one: Yeah, Khamenei is still alive - and of course he will never surrender. But denying him the 'glory of martyrdom' is another smart move that no one appreciates unless they know Muslim culture. For the jihadis, death in battle is the best fate. The absolute worst fate is to be humiliated by the enemy, see everything they believed in turn to dust, and then be left to deal with it.
Israeli intel is saying that Khamenei had a mental breakdown in his bunker and is likely to give irrational orders. Maybe today's attack on the soil of Qatar, their only Arab ally, was one of those.
No. He is playing the Israelis. I will explain this soon.
for sure Trump is seemingly doing very little to help Israel. His propaganda team is pushing the 'we can't fight for the Jews' mantra instead of the more accurate 'we screwed Iranians in 1979, and now we're going to help make things right'. The US would sacrifice soldiers for the liberation of Iraqi islamists--but not for Iranians. And most people are too ignorant to understand any of this...