History is repeating as Trump 'appeases' (wink, wink) the ayatollahs repeatedly. Note that while you view Trump as a 'covert totalitarian antisemite', I see him as an actor representing totalitarian antisemites--and while I once had hopes for him doing something good, his preservation of the irgc and repeated u-turns, abandonment of anti-fascist Iranians long ago prompted me to put no faith in him whatsoever.
There has been much teasing over the last couple of years about the Pahlavis retaking power in Iran, but it hasn't come to fruition, and shows no signs of coming to fruition.
There are many people online and in real life who are loyal 'marks' of the system (these are the people that think pro-wrestling is real). They squeal about how much they hate Trump, they call him a pedophile, an unconvicted felon, a racist etc---but they fully support him when it comes to preserving the irgc, and they fully support the rabid anti-Israel propaganda program that has been in place under Trump/Patel.
Certainly plausible, as a counter-factual Trumps also a fan of the negotiation theory tactic of anchoring. Per Google a cognitive bias where the first number or position put on the table sets the boundaries for the rest of the negotiation.
The Tactic: By starting with an incredibly high, seemingly unreasonable, or maximalist demand, you aggressively pull the "center" of the negotiation toward your side.
The Reality: Even if the other party completely rejects the initial demand, the subsequent counter-offers are often still higher than they would have been if the opener had been modest.
He does this all the time, sometimes it works like Venezuala, maybe this time not so much?
Everybody does anchoring in negotiations. Trump and everybody else. Oldest trick in the book. But how is this anchoring? He made a series of U-turns and then gave the ayatollahs a way out.
He attacked only because the ayatollahs refused to sign.
Anchoring works like this:
You start tough and you hold, and you wait for the counter. Trump started tough and then he right away softened into a puddle.
No negotiation book--and certainly not HIS book-- recommends THAT.
History is repeating as Trump 'appeases' (wink, wink) the ayatollahs repeatedly. Note that while you view Trump as a 'covert totalitarian antisemite', I see him as an actor representing totalitarian antisemites--and while I once had hopes for him doing something good, his preservation of the irgc and repeated u-turns, abandonment of anti-fascist Iranians long ago prompted me to put no faith in him whatsoever.
There has been much teasing over the last couple of years about the Pahlavis retaking power in Iran, but it hasn't come to fruition, and shows no signs of coming to fruition.
There are many people online and in real life who are loyal 'marks' of the system (these are the people that think pro-wrestling is real). They squeal about how much they hate Trump, they call him a pedophile, an unconvicted felon, a racist etc---but they fully support him when it comes to preserving the irgc, and they fully support the rabid anti-Israel propaganda program that has been in place under Trump/Patel.
Certainly plausible, as a counter-factual Trumps also a fan of the negotiation theory tactic of anchoring. Per Google a cognitive bias where the first number or position put on the table sets the boundaries for the rest of the negotiation.
The Tactic: By starting with an incredibly high, seemingly unreasonable, or maximalist demand, you aggressively pull the "center" of the negotiation toward your side.
The Reality: Even if the other party completely rejects the initial demand, the subsequent counter-offers are often still higher than they would have been if the opener had been modest.
He does this all the time, sometimes it works like Venezuala, maybe this time not so much?
I couldn't understand the argument.
Everybody does anchoring in negotiations. Trump and everybody else. Oldest trick in the book. But how is this anchoring? He made a series of U-turns and then gave the ayatollahs a way out.
He attacked only because the ayatollahs refused to sign.
Anchoring works like this:
You start tough and you hold, and you wait for the counter. Trump started tough and then he right away softened into a puddle.
No negotiation book--and certainly not HIS book-- recommends THAT.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/30/iran-trump-peace-deal-analysis?CMP=share_btn_url
You're not alone in noticing