DOES THE US SUPPORT ISRAEL? OR JIHAD? A simple-minded look at the numbers [PART 2]
An MOR series
If you didn’t read Part 1 yet, you may do so here:
![DOES THE US SUPPORT ISRAEL? OR JIHAD? Tucker Carlson and 'America First'... [PART 1]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!stzx!,w_140,h_140,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F59cc011f-8d0e-44d9-9b61-5f13c8207c99_3339x1869.png)
Even with generous assumptions for US military spending and arms transfers for Israel, and restrictive assumptions for the same for Israel’s enemies, the latter are still getting six times more.
Why do people say that the US has a pro-Israel policy?
NOTE: This article is a quick and simple read—2000 words. (The rest is appendices and footnotes.)
Prominent commentators on the political right have been defending what they call an ‘America First’ position. In general terms, this is supposed to mean that US policy should not be preoccupied with benefiting other countries unless that provides a return net benefit to the United States.
Stated broadly like that, ‘America First’ makes sense to me. But, in practice, ‘America Firsters’ do not seem to complain broadly about US policy around the world; rather, they complain mostly about the US’s allegedly pro-Israel policies, which, according to them, are bad for US citizens.
In my previous piece in this series, I have considered Tucker Qatarlson—excuse me, Carlson—because he is especially interesting. Even as he complains about the US’s alleged pro-Israel policy, he celebrates that a pro-Qatari US policy—even one that supports Qatar against Israel—is good for US citizens. And, defiantly, he declares that he’ll buy a home in Qatar “to make a statement that I’m an American and a free man.”1
Is the self-parody involuntary? Perhaps.
Or perhaps we are the innocents—and this is an Orwellian dare (FREEDOM IS SLAVERY). For “free man” Tucker Carlson’s real-estate investment in Qatar makes a rather different statement: that Carlson has now become a modern and literal slave master.
Don’t take it from me. This is what the New York Times wrote in a 2013 article titled ‘Indentured Servitude in the Persian Gulf’:
“Some 1.2 million foreign workers—mostly poor Asians from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Indonesia and the Philippines—make up 94 percent of the labor force in Qatar, an absolute monarchy roughly the size of Connecticut.”2
Per the New York Times, save for a tiny handful of expatriate managers, those “foreign workers” in Qatar labor in a system of “indentured servitude.” Some academics more frankly call it “virtual slavery.” But that is still shy of the mark. These people cannot leave, many aren’t paid, and physical and sexual abuse are extensively documented. When no longer useful, they are discarded. Many experience hunger. Some die. These are slaves.
We explain that here:
It is therefore slaves—literal slaves—who will be cleaning, maintaining, and servicing “American and free man” Tucker Carlson’s new Qatari residence.
Why is Tucker Carlson—at times ranked as the third-biggest podcaster—telling his giant audience that supporting jihadi Qatar against democratic Israel is compatible with ‘America First’?
That question must be addressed elsewhere. What concerns us here is the premise behind Carlson’s complaint. Is it really true that the US has had a pro-Israel policy? Restated in geopolitical, military terms:
Is it true that the net effect of US policy is to protect Israel’s security interests?
One may investigate this question of alleged US support for Israel in different ways. For example, with strategic analysis of diplomacy, which characterizes much of my work. But one can also do simple arithmetic: add up the dollar value of US military spending and arms flows to the various countries and compare. And that’s what I do here.
In my sample period, 2006-2025, as I show below, making the most generous assumptions to give the highest possible dollar-value estimate of US armament flows to Israel, I got 137 billion.
By contrast, 1) despite ruling out any item for which doubt concerning the final intended recipient; 2) despite excluding non-State actors such as Hamas and PLO/Fatah that convert US money received into armaments and salaries to kill Israeli Jews (see Appendix A); and 3) despite excluding enemies relatively removed geographically from Israel, I still got $780.5 billion.
Measured in dollars, Israel’s enemies are getting almost six times more in US military spending and arms flows than Israel.
This and other analyses within MOR raise some interesting questions. How come everyone thinks the US bosses have had a pro-Israel policy? And why aren’t ‘America Firsters’ complaining about all the US military spending and armament going to the jihadis?
But these questions are not our present quarry. Our present quarry is the universal mainstream allegation of a pro-Israel US policy, which does not survive the arithmetic.
The demonstration follows.
A few notes on method
Below I document and compare the dollar value of US military spending for Israel and for Israel’s enemies during the period 2006–2025. I am including all categories of military spending for it is all materially consequential to the security of Israel.
This period includes three Republican administrations (George W. Bush’s second term, Donald Trump’s first term, and Donald Trump’s current term) and three Democratic administrations (Barack Obama’s two terms and Joe Biden’s term). The pattern is therefore bipartisan.
Figures are presented separately for 2006–2024 and for 2025 in order to clarify the continuity of the policy pattern into the second Trump administration.
Two methodological biases were implemented.
First, the tally for Israel’s enemies is deliberately conservative. Any items where ambiguity remains as to whether an enemy of Israel was the intended recipient were excluded (examples in the footnote).3
The list does not include the full set of Israel’s military adversaries, as the comparison is limited to States geographically proximate to Israel. For example, US armament and military training flows to Pakistan, and to Hamas or PLO/Fatah (the ‘Palestinian Authority’), are not included in the tally.
Second, the tally for Israel is deliberately expansive. Where ambiguity exists as to whether a US military expenditure should be included in Israel’s column, it is counted. There is even some double counting that I didn’t bother to tease out. The purpose is to avoid understating US armament flows to Israel.
The comparison therefore pits a conservative estimate for Israel’s enemies against an expansive estimate for Israel.
For this comparison, the States included as enemies of Israel are: Turkey, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt. Interested readers will find my arguments for each State’s inclusion in this enemy list in Appendix A.
NOTE: none of the dollar figures have been adjusted for inflation because the point here is to compare what Israel gets against what Israel’s enemies get, and for that relative comparison knowing the values in present dollars is irrelevant.
The numbers: a simple-minded presentation
The most careful definition of the category considered is ‘US military spending in [country X], plus US military aid to [country X], plus military purchases [made by country X] from the US.’ The table below shows the corresponding estimated quantity for the enemies of Israel. The unit is millions of dollars.
I am documenting over 780 billion dollars to the enemies of Israel for the sample period 2006-2025.
For the period 2006-2024, you may perform a check on my numbers by consulting the following footnotes: Turkey4 ; Lebanon5 ; Syria6 ; Iraq (Iran)7 ; Jordan8 ; Saudi Arabia9 ; Qatar10 ; Egypt.11
For Donald Trump in 2025, you may perform a check on my numbers by consulting the following footnotes: Turkey12 ; Lebanon13 ; Syria14 ; Iraq (Iran)15 ; Jordan16 ; Saudi Arabia17 ; Qatar18 ; Egypt.19
Now, about Israel.
I have produced a maximum estimate of US military spending in favor of Israel. This Grand Total, for the period 2006-2025 inclusive, is 137 billion. (My sources in Appendix B.)
As stated earlier, in deriving this estimate I have used assumptions that are opposite to those employed in calculating military spending for the enemies of Israel.
Any ambiguous figures were counted as flows to Israel, and there is even some double counting (I don’t know how much) where figuring out redundancies in the reports is difficult.
Even with these biases, we still have the following result:
US military spending for Israel’s enemies is almost six times larger than for Israel.
The most interesting number: US military spending for Iraq
As you can see in the table above, US military spending for Iraq is The Great Outlier: 574 billion dollars. This figure is so large that it is almost three quarters of the total dollar value of US military spending for Israel’s enemies in the last ten years.
Here is another way of highlighting the drama of this number: even if Iraq were the only enemy of Israel, this amount would still be more than four times larger than US military spending for Israel in the same period.
Now, why is this especially significant? Well consider this headline:
That’s the Brookings Institution over at Stanford.20 Why do they say that “The Popular Mobilization Force [PMF] is turning Iraq into an Iranian client state”? Well, because
The PMF is commanded from Iran.
The PMF has taken over Iraq.
On the first point, consider that “Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, chief of staff of PMF and later deputy chairman of its Popular Mobilization Committee, cut his teeth with the IRGC and has always remained close to them.21 The Badr Brigade or Badr Corps, the largest chunk—by far—of the PMF, was born as the “the military arm of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), a Shia Islamic party based in Iran,” described as “Khomeinist,” and “formed in 1982 and led by Iranian officers.”22
On the second point, consider what Brookings writes in the body of the article:
“Beyond its formidable presence in the Iraqi parliament, the PMF indirectly controls several ministries and the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has exercised its influence over the country’s elections, government-formation rules, and Kurdish oil exports to suppress the PMF’s political rivals. Within the security forces, the Badr Brigade controls the Interior Ministry, and the PMF has a symbiotic relationship with some parts of the Iraqi security forces, including the military, where PMF officials have outsized authority.”
Caroline Rose of the New Lines Institute explains that “PMF control[s] … Iraqi transnational highways, military bases, and border patrol posts.” 23
And since in “the [Iraqi] military … PMF officials have outsized authority,” US policymakers have been consciously sending $574 billion in US weapons to an Iranian-backed force.
I must quibble, however, with the editing of the title in the Brookings Institution article. They say that, under PMF control, Iraq is “turning … into” an “Iranian client state.” What do they mean by “turning … into”? It is done.
Long before, in 2015, the Associated Press was already printing the following headline: Consider, for example, what the Associated Press: ‘Iran Has Never Been More Influential In Iraq,’ explaining that
“Iran’s most potent military force and best known general—the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force and its commander Gen. Ghasem Soleimani—are organizing Iraqi forces and have become the de facto leaders of Iraqi Shiite militias that are the backbone of the fight [against ISIS].”24
In fact, Iranian control over Iraq dated from 2003, because that was an immediate consequence of the US invasion of Iraq in that year. Why? Because Iraq is 60% Shiite, and the US-sponsored elections gave power to Iraqi Shiite forces controlled from Iran.
Consider this completely mainstream claim: “since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, most of the Badr Brigade fighters have entered the new Iraqi army and police force.”25 Since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq… Crucially, this happened because
“the United States began encouraging [Badr] militants to join the ranks of the Iraqi Security Forces. Badr militants served as police, military, and intelligence forces.”26
The evidence suggests that this was all prearranged rather improvised. Though never mentioned again, at the time of the US invasion of Iraq it was reported in the International Herald Tribune (property of the New York Times) that the US military had taken the opportunity of bombing Iranian dissidents—enemies of the Iranian ayatollahs—who had established their bases in Iraq.27 And then US forces chased the survivors on land. A gift to the Iranian ayatollahs!
There was reciprocity. In the same time bracket, the Iranian ayatollahs were reported in the Financial Times to have exerted themselves mightily to assist—politically, materially, and militarily—the US invasion of Iraq.28
By 2006, The Guardian was describing the effect of the US invasion of Iraq as follows:
“Iran is the true winner of that war. They only had to sit tight and smile as the West delivered on a golden plate all the influence Iran had always sought in the Middle East. The US and its allies will soon be gone from Afghanistan and Iraq, leaving Iranian-backed Shias dominant in both countries, their influence well spread across Syria, a chunk of Saudi Arabia and other countries for decades to come. Historic Iranian ambitions have been fulfilled without firing a shot while the US is reduced to fist-shaking. How foolish was that?”29
Foolish…?
But if this had been a mistake the US would have ceased sending astronomical quantities of armament to Iranian-controlled Iraq. And yet no country on the planet has gotten more US armament in the last 10 years.
US policymakers are not confused about the Iranian control of post-invasion Iraq, which the academics at Brookings and the New Lines Institute, and the journalists at The Guardian, can plainly see. US authorities engineered the Iranian takeover of Iraq. And then they proceeded to arm Iraq to the hilt, which is effectively a way of arming Iran.
This is consistent with what was scandalously documented in the second half of the 1980s, during the Iran-Contra Affair, when the Reagan-Bush administration was caught red-handed transferring many billions of dollars in weapons, secretly, to the Iranian jihadi terrorists.
The difference is that US military spending to benefit Iran now happens entirely in the open thanks to the media-assisted pretense that there is such thing as an ‘independent Iraq,’ when in reality Iraq is more accurately described—thanks to the US invasion—as the westernmost province of Iran.
To summarize:
There has been over 4 times more US military spending in Iranian-controlled Iraq than in Israel.
If you want to know what’s really happening…
Lest we forget, the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially declared—and it periodically restates in State-sponsored events—that the genocidal destruction of Israel remains its fundamental and existential goal as a State. Iran is arguably the greatest enemy of Israel. And its commitment to its antisemitic genocidal goal is not in doubt, as Iran has been supporting proxy terrorist forces on Israel’s borders (Hezbollah, Hamas); has tried hard to develop a nuclear weapon to drop it on Israel; and has directly attacked the Jewish State.
I ask again:
Why does anybody say that US foreign policy is pro-Israel?
Appendix A - How were ‘enemies of Israel’ identified?
For purposes of this comparison, a State is classified as an enemy of Israel on the basis of documented hostile actions directed toward Israel or material support for actors engaged in such actions.
Declared intentions and official ideology are considered where they align with documented behavior. Where public declarations diverge from behavior, classification is determined by behavior.
State support—covert or overt—for anti-Israeli jihadis is counted as anti-Israel behavior regardless of formal treaties, alliances, or public declarations.
Support for PLO/Fatah has the same effect on classification because:
Fatah was created by Hajj Amin al Husseini, who armed and trained entire SS divisions for Heinrich Himmler and, together with Adolf Eichmann, ran the death camps for the German Nazis, becoming the top co-director of the German Nazi Final Solution in Europe; and
Fatah is a co-creator of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, for it armed and trained the guerrillas that took Ayatollah Khomeini to power in 1979, then assisted the creation of Khomeini’s key institutions, including the terrorist Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, publicly dedicated to repeating the Final Solution in Israel.
In what follows below, these three claims about PLO/Fatah history will be taken as given, but anyone needing to see the supporting documentation may consult the following two pieces:
One must also take into account the following:
Fatah is an active terrorist force. Aside from dramatic terrorist bursts such as the Second Intifada, Fatah has maintained for many years a program dubbed “pay for slay” that pays lifetime salaries to Arab killers of Jews, creating a vast incentive for Arab society in the ‘Palestinian Authority’ to structure itself around antisemitic terrorist violence.30 This is so scandalous that the US Congress has reduced US monies going to the ‘Palestinian Authority’ (but they didn’t cancel such monies outright!).31
Finally, support for Hamas once again has the same effect, because Hamas have clearly stated in their founding Charter that they mean to destroy the State of Israel in genocide. And Hamas have amply demonstrated their serious commitment to this stated purpose with the massacre and hostage-taking of October 7th, 2023, the worst terrorist attack against the Jewish people since the Shoa (Holocaust).
Here follows a list of the countries included as enemies of Israel, and the reasons for each.
Turkey. Turkish President Erdoğan has publicly and operationally aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, the creator of Hamas. Turkish territory has served as a base for Hamas political operations, and the Turkish government has provided diplomatic support to Hamas.32
From the outset of the Syrian Civil War to the present day, Turkish policy in Syria has been to arm and train jihadi forces there, including ISIS, that openly call for the destruction of Israel.33 Turkey is the most important patron of the new government in Syria, presided by Muhammad Al Jolani, whom ISIS leader Al Baghdadi selected to spread his movement in that country, and who until recently was officially wanted for his acts of terrorism (the US State Department was offering a $10 million reward).
Recently, Turkish President Erdoğan—very publicly aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, the creator of Hamas—has threatened to conquer Israel, thus publicly clarifying the intention behind such policies.34
Lebanon. Hezbollah (Hizb’Allah or ‘Party of God’) has operated as the dominant armed force within Lebanon while maintaining an independent military structure outside the control of the Lebanese State. Since at least 2006, when our sample period begins, Hezbollah’s political branch has also dominated in the official election results.35 Hezbollah now exercises such decisive influence within Lebanese political institutions, including the cabinet, the Military Supreme Council, and the parliament, that Lebanon has been described in major international media as “a Hezbollah-run State.”36 All of this turns Lebanon into an enemy of Israel, because Hezbollah was created, and is funded, trained, and armed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the specific purpose of attacking Israel from Lebanese territory.
Syria. During the Syrian Civil War, Syrian territory became a base of operations for multiple jihadist formations publicly committed to Israel’s destruction. The current governing authority in Syria is led by Muhammad Al Jolani, founder of the ISIS project in Syria. Given the declared hostility of these jihadist formations toward Israel, and their consolidation of state power, plus the fact that Turkey is their patron, Syria must be classified as an enemy of Israel.
The US armament flows included in this study for the Syria case consist of transfers documented as having been knowingly directed to ISIS and other jihadist formations operating during the Syrian Civil War, as documented here:
These transfers are considered here because the jihadists whom the US knowingly supported in Syria are now the government there, and only because Donald Trump intervened to stop the Israeli advance in Syria and protected Al Jolani, whose government he legitimated, thereafter lifting the sanctions previously imposed on Syria.
Iraq (Iran). Secret US weapons transfers to the Islamic Republic of Iran have occurred in the past, many billions of dollars worth, as documented in the US Congress for the Reagan-Bush administration during the Iran-Contra Affair of the 1980s.
At the time of writing I am aware of no documentation supporting that secret transfers of US weapons to Iran have continued after Iran-Contra. For the last ten years, however, we do have ample documentation for significant transfers of US weapons to Iran that have happened entirely out in the open. These go via Iraq.
The context is as follows. Because Iraq is about 60% Shia, the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, plus the US-sponsored election, brought a Shiite government to power and turned Iraq—as academics now finally recognize—into “an Iranian client state.”37 Much of Iran’s power is now deployed via the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a union of Iranian-backed Shiite militias now integrated into the Iraqi security forces. “PMF control[s] … Iraqi transnational highways, military bases, and border patrol posts.”38
Since the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially declared—and periodically restates in State-sponsored events—that the destruction of Israel remains its fundamental and existential goal as a State, Iranian control over Iraq means that Iraq is an enemy of Israel.
Jordan. The Kingdom of Jordan has signed a peace treaty with Israel. However, the Kingdom of Jordan must be considered strategically aligned with both PLO/Fatah and the Muslim Brotherhood—an enemy State, as argued here.
After PLO/Fatah was defeated in Lebanon by Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in 1982, a hurried Franco-American diplomacy plus military escort saved the PLO/Fatah executive and carried it to safe exile in Tunis. PLO/Fatah proceded to mend fences with the Kingdom of Jordan (against which it had fought in the past), and in 1988 Jordan announced that it relinquished its claim on Judea and Samaria in favor of PLO/Fatah.39 Thereafter, Jordan played an important diplomatic role in the Oslo Process that brought PLO/Fatah into Judea, Samaria, and Gaza. And Jordan has recently reaffirmed “unwavering support” for Mahmoud Abbas and the PLO/Fatah terrorists.40 This, as argued above, is sufficient to identify Jordan as an enemy of Israel.
But there is more.
The Muslim Brotherhood—creator of Hamas—has “deep roots in [Jordanian] civil society—through charities, professional associations, and welfare provision—”, and it has become crushingly influential.41 A summary of Joas Wagemakers findings on the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan states: “Since its founding in 1945, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood has enjoyed decades of almost continuous parliamentary presence and state acceptance in Jordan, participating in elections, organising events and even establishing a hospital.”42 According to Jordanian opposition figure Mudar Zahran,
“the organization’s global headquarters—which the MB refers to as a community society—is in Jordan, just miles from the king’s palace, led by Hammam Saeed, a ruthless PhD in Sharia Law. This centralized command ensures unwavering discipline, even among high-profile members like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, according to Zahran, visited Amman shortly after his election to pay homage and make clear what his ideology is centered upon.”43
Jordanian authorities have reportedly banned the Muslim Brotherhood after recently discovering a plot against the government.44 Whether this ban is at all serious or effective is a matter of speculation.
It is entirely possible that the Muslim Brotherhood, with vast support among Jordanians, may in one way or anther, violent or not, become the government in Jordan in the near future, but in any case Jordan appears already largely in thrall to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Jordan is thus a formal supporter of PLO/Fatah, and a de facto supporter of Hamas. It is an enemy of Israel.
Saudi Arabia. The Saudi regime has long been allied domestically with some of the most fanatical jihadists anywhere. And it has eagerly exported jihadism—for example, by supporting the Afghan mujahedin, ISIS, and other such forces.45 The regime has sustained a religious and financial ecosystem that enables jihadist movements, and it tolerates donor and charity networks aligned with that ecosystem. It has only acted against these jihadi networks—and only domestically—when they threaten the Saudi regime’s stability.
The participation of Saudi Arabia in three wars that have sought to destroy the State of Israel in genocide is as follows. Saudi participated actively in both the 1948 War (Saudi volunteers and expeditionary units fought alongside other Arab States) and the 1973 War (thousands of soldiers to support Syria’s front, including a Saudi brigade and armored elements participating in rear-area and reconnaissance roles, while also leading a coordinated oil embargo against Western states supporting Israel). In the 1967 War, Saudi did not send troops but provided political and financial support to the attacking Arab states.
Moreover Saudi support for the PLO/Fatah terrorists has historically been most clearly expressed through financial patronage flowing from Saudi territory (wealthy donors based in Saudi Arabia), which helped fund Fatah as it rose to dominance within the PLO. A U.S. government cable in the Foreign Relations of the United States series states bluntly that “most of Fatah’s financial support comes from wealthy Palestinians living in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia,” capturing the basic structural point that Saudi-based money has been a major pillar of Fatah’s operational financing.46
Qatar. It has long been recognized that Qatar is symbiotically joined to the Muslim Brotherhood, and that Qatar is a major sponsor, donor, and host to that MB creation: the terror group Hamas.47
Egypt. There is a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, signed in 1979. The context is as follows. In 1967, under Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt led the Arab States against Israel in the Six Day War. The Arab States were soundly defeated by Israel. Egypt lost Gaza and all of the Sinai. In order to get the Sinai back, Egypt signed a peace treaty, brokered by US President Jimmy Carter. However, Egypt has repeatedly violated the stipulations in the peace treaty and therefore has effectively resumed a state of war with Israel. The most recent violations are the most serious.
Under the terms of the peace treaty, Egypt specifically committed to prevent smuggling of weapons (etc.) via the Gaza-Egypt border.48 Egypt has patently not honored this commitment.49
Also under the terms of the peace treaty, Egypt committed to keeping the Sinai demilitarized. But Egypt has been stationing lots of military hardware in the Sinai and has been conducting military exercises in preparation for an invasion of Israel.50
Appendix B - How did I calculate the dollar amount of US military flows to Israel?
Using Congressional Research Service data, total U.S. military assistance to Israel from FY2006 through FY2025—including Foreign Military Financing (FMF), missile defense cooperation, and supplemental security appropriations—amounts to approximately $87 billion in nominal dollars.51
To break it down, here is what the $87 billion represents (a measured subtotal):
~$71.7 billion = U.S. military aid appropriations to Israel across FY2006–FY2024 (FMF + missile defense + supplementals as captured in the CRS aid table).
~$15.2 billion = FY2025 armament flows under the same rules:
$3.8B (military assistance) + $0.32B (missile defense) from CRS for FY2025 (= $4.12B)
plus ~$11.1B in FY2025 major arms sale notifications (FMS notifications aggregated by the tracker; DSCA releases show the major components).
Rounded: 71.7 + 15.2 ≈ $87 billion
To construct a maximum estimate of total armament flows, one may add an upper-bound estimate of roughly $50 billion representing additional Foreign Military Sales (FMS) notifications and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) export authorizations not fully compiled in the baseline calculation. FMS notifications are documented in Defense Security Cooperation Agency releases,52 and Israel-specific entries,53 and aggregated by the Forum on the Arms Trade tracker.54 DCS authorizations are reported annually in the State Department’s Section 655 reports.55 Because FMF grant funds often finance FMS purchases, adding full FMS/DCS notification values to appropriations necessarily introduces double counting. Accordingly, the $87 billion + $50 billion = $137 billion should be understood as a deliberately high maximum estimate of authorized armament flows rather than a net fiscal transfer figure.
Instructions for GPT
Below are the exact instructions someone should give to chatGPT 5 (or any comparable model) to replicate the ~$87 billion figure mentioned above (I did this repeatedly in separate threads to check against hallucination, the result was always the same).
🔹 PART I — 2006–2024 (Inclusive)
Instruction:
Calculate the total dollar value of US armament flows to Israel from fiscal year 2006 through fiscal year 2024 inclusive.
Use the following methodology:
Include all congressionally appropriated military assistance to Israel, including Foreign Military Financing (FMF), missile defense cooperation (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow), and any supplemental emergency security appropriations.
Include the full dollar value of any approved arms sales notifications (Foreign Military Sales and Direct Commercial Sales) to Israel during this period, whether the weapons were sold or granted.
Count the full notified or appropriated dollar amount at the time of authorization, even if delivery occurred in later fiscal years.
Do not adjust for inflation. Use nominal dollars.
Where ambiguity exists as to whether a US military expenditure should be counted in Israel’s column, include it.
Exclude non-military economic aid.
Exclude private transfers and unofficial activity.
Return the aggregate nominal total for 2006–2024.
🔹 PART II — Trump 2.0 Year (2025 Only)
Instruction:
Calculate the total dollar value of US armament flows to Israel for fiscal year 2025 under the same methodology as above.
Include:
All military appropriations for Israel enacted for FY2025.
All supplemental or emergency security appropriations for Israel enacted during FY2025.
All approved arms sales notifications to Israel during FY2025.
Count full authorized dollar values in nominal terms.
Do not adjust for inflation.
Return the FY2025 total separately.
🔹 ASSUMPTIONS (Make These Explicit)
The following assumptions must be explicitly stated in the calculation:
The figure reflects dollar value of armament flows, not deliveries.
Both sales and grants are included.
Full authorized amounts are counted at time of authorization.
Nominal dollars are used.
The methodology intentionally errs on the side of including ambiguous items in Israel’s column.
🔹 Expected Result (Using This Method)
Using the above assumptions, the expected approximate totals are:
2006–2024: ~$71 billion
2025 (Trump 2.0): ~$16 billion
Combined 2006–2025: ~$87 billion
(Rounding accounts for small variations depending on how specific notifications are counted.)
Lankston, C. (2025, December 8). Tucker Carlson sparks uproar after revealing plan to buy a home in Qatar to ‘make a statement that I’m an American and a free man’. Realtor.com.
https://www.realtor.com/news/celebrity-real-estate/tucker-carlson-home-purchase-qatar-outrage/
‘Indentured Servitude in the Persian Gulf’; New York Times; 12 April 2013; by Richard Morin
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/14/sunday-review/indentured-servitude-in-the-persian-gulf.html
Past US congressional investigations have documented covert US weapons transfers to enemies of Israel. The Iran–Contra transfers to the Iranian ayatollahs in the 1980s—worth many billions of dollars—provide one such example.
For purposes of the present tally, however, I have not attempted to identify or estimate covert transfers beyond what has already been officially documented in congressional or declassified materials.
A distinct category involves weapons transfers to anti-Israel forces that were represented to US citizens as ‘pro-Western’ and ‘democratic,’ as in the Syrian Civil War. In that case, declassified US documents have established that US policymakers knew they were arming jihadist formations. On that documentary basis, these particular transfers have been included in the tally.
Where US weapons have flowed to the enemies of Israel, but a policy intent to achieve this result has not been established, I have excluded the case from the tally. For example, US weapons inherited by the Afghan Taliban after the US evacuation are not included because, at present, I lack solid documentary evidence with which to dispute the official narrative of incompetence.
From the following document, I conclude that Turkey bought US armament totaling $21.67 billion in the period 2020-2024 inclusive.
Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (2025). Historical sales book: Fiscal years 1950 to 2024.
https://media.defense.gov/2025/Jul/01/2003746467/-1/-1/1/FY_2024_HISTORICAL_SALES_BOOK_COMPLETE.PDF
From the following document, I conclude that Turkey bought US armament totaling $5.73 billion in the period 2007-2019 inclusive. So we have $27.4 billion for the period 2007-2024.
Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (2006). Historical facts book (as of September 30, 2006).
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/International_Security_Affairs/24-F-0646_Historical_Facts_Books_2006.pdf
The same document lists $1 billion for 2026. So the grand total is 28.4 billion for 2006-2024 inclusive.
U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. (2025, January 20). U.S. security cooperation with Lebanon.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-lebanon/
The Washington Post reports that Timber Sycamore Operation to arm the “Syrian rebels” (2013-2017) was $1 billion a year.
Miller, G., & DeYoung, K. (2015, June 12). Lawmakers move to curb $1 billion CIA program to train Syrian rebels. The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/lawmakers-move-to-curb-1-billion-cia-program-to-train-syrian-rebels/2015/06/12/b0f45a9e-1114-11e5-adec-e82f8395c032_story.html
There was additional Pentagon spending for the “Syrian rebels” to the tune of $500 million.
Blanchard, C. M., & Humud, C. E. (2016). Armed conflict in Syria: Overview and U.S. response.
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf
To understand how all of that armament—with the full understanding of the US bosses—ended up in jihadi hands, read:
Gil‑White, F. (2024, December 10). Did the US government create ISIS? The American “jihadi university” in Iraq. Management of Reality.
https://franciscogilwhite.substack.com/p/did-the-us-create-isis-the-american-jihadi-university
I should point out that the US also made sure that additional funding (larger than the US funding) reached the “Syrian rebels” from Saudi Arabia.
Mazzetti, M., Schmitt, E., & Hubbard, B. (2016, January 23). U.S. relies heavily on Saudi money to support Syrian rebels. The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/world/middleeast/us-relies-heavily-on-saudi-money-to-support-syrian-rebels.html
From the following document, assuming roughly even yearly spending, I conclude that Iraq got about $380 billion in military aid during the years of 2006-2009 inclusive.
GAO. (2010). Iraq reconstruction: United States government accountability office report to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, U.S. House of Representatives (GAO‑10‑304). U.S. Government Accountability Office.
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-10-304
From the following document, I infer conservatively that Iraq got an additional $100 billion in the period 2010-2011 inclusive, bringing the cumulative total to $480 billion.
Belasco, A. (2010). The cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and other global war on terror operations since 9/11 (CRS Report for Congress RL33110). Congressional Research Service.
https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc491253/m1/1/high_res_d/RL33110_2010Jul16.pdf
From the following document, I infer conservatively that Iraq got another $100 billion in the period 2012-2024, bringing the cumulative total to 580 billion.
Crawford, N. C. (2023). Blood and treasure: United States budgetary costs and human costs of 20 years of war in Iraq and Syria, 2003–2023. Costs of War Project, Brown University.
https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/sites/default/files/papers/Costs-of-20-Years-of-Iraq-War-Crawford.pdf
U.S. Department of State. (2015, February 3). Memorandum of understanding between the United States and Jordan.
https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/02/237128.htm
U.S. Department of State. (2025). U.S. security cooperation with Jordan.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-jordan/
U.S. Department of State. (2022, September 16). Joint statement on the signing of the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding on strategic partnership between the United States and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-signing-of-the-bilateral-memorandum-of-understanding-on-strategic-partnership-between-the-united-states-and-the-hashemite-kingdom-of-jordan/?safe=1
Deagel. (2008, September 9). Saudi Arabia requests 12 AH‑64D Apache Longbow helicopters.
https://www.deagel.com/news/n000004979
AH‑64.net. (n.d.). Operators: Saudi Arabia.
https://www.ah-64.net/operators/saudi-arabia/
Defense Arabia English. (2024, October 11). US approves $2.2 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia and UAE.
https://english.defensearabia.com/us-approves-2-2-billion-arms-sale-to-saudi-arabia-and-uae/
The Hindu Business Line. (2014, July 15). Qatar buying US helicopters, missiles in multibillion dollar deal. The Hindu Business Line.
https://web.archive.org/web/20160412185639/http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/qatar-buying-us-helicopters-missiles-in-multibilliondollar-deal/article6211496.ece
The Washington Post. (2008, October 8). Lockheed to supply planes to Qatar.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/07/AR2008100703034.html
Schenker, D. (2013, September 4). Inside the complex world of U.S. military assistance to Egypt. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/inside-complex-world-us-military-assistance-egypt
The Defense Post. (2024, December 21). US military sale to Egypt includes tanks, missiles, and more.
https://thedefensepost.com/2024/12/21/us-military-sale-egypt/
U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (n.d.). Major arms sales: Turkey.
https://www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/Major-Arms-Sales/Tag/58501/turkey
LBCI News. (2025, October 2). US approves $230 million in security aid to Lebanon as part of Hezbollah disarmament push. LBCI.
https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/lebanon-news/881959/us-approves-230-million-in-security-aid-to-lebanon-as-part-of-hezbolla/en
The document below explains that Donald Trump earmarked $148 million for the Syrian Democratic Force (basically, the Rojava Kurds in the northeast).
U.S. Department of Defense. (2024). Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund (CTEF) FY 2025 budget justification.
https://comptroller.war.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_CTEF_J-Book.pdf
All of this armament ended up in the hands of ISIS—specifically, Muhammad Al Jolani’s forces, who got the green light from Trump to destroy the Rojava Kurds, as we explain here:
From the following document I estimate, very conservatively, about $1 billion for Iraq in 2025.
Bilmes, L. J. (2025). Wider Middle East costs of war. Costs of War Project, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University. https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/sites/default/files/2025-10/Wider-Middle-East-Costs_Costs-of-War_Bilmes_10.7.25.pdf
U.S. Department of State. (n.d.). U.S. security cooperation with Jordan.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-jordan/
Defense Arabia English. (2024, October 11). US approves $2.2 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia and UAE.
https://english.defensearabia.com/us-approves-2-2-billion-arms-sale-to-saudi-arabia-and-uae/
U.S. Department of Defense, Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (2025). Qatar — Major arms sales.
https://www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/Major-Arms-Sales/Tag/62065/qatar
AP News. (2025, March 27). Qatar to buy U.S. MQ‑9 Reaper drones in possible $1.96B sale.
https://apnews.com/article/qatar-us-mq9-reaper-drone-sale-959deaa1d8952715a9c7700b224bac3d
U.S. Department of State. (2025). U.S. security cooperation with Egypt.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-egypt/
Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (2025). Egypt—Major arms sales.
https://www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/Major-Arms-Sales/Tag/47558/egypt
Alaaldin, R. (2024, February 2). The Popular Mobilization Force is turning Iraq into an Iranian client state. Brookings Institution.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-popular-mobilization-force-is-turning-iraq-into-an-iranian-client-state/
Wikipedia contributors. (n.d.). Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved February 24, 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Mahdi_al-Muhandis
Wikipedia contributors. (n.d.). Badr Organization. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved February 24, 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badr_Organization
Rose, C. (2020, August 12). Iraq: Caught between the U.S., Iran and itself. New Lines Institute.
https://newlinesinstitute.org/political-systems/governance/iraq-caught-between-the-u-s-iran-and-itself/
‘Iran Has Never Been More Influential In Iraq’; Associated Press; 12 January 2015; by Hamza Hendawi Qassim Abdul-zahra.
http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-has-never-been-more-influential-in-iraq-2015-1
Wikipedia contributors. (n.d.). Badr Organization. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved February 24, 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badr_Organization
Mapping Militants Project. (2021). Badr Organization of Reconstruction and Development.
https://mappingmilitants.org/files/group-profiles/badr_organization_of_reconstruction_and_development.pdf
Jehl, D. (2003, April 17). U.S. bombs Iranian guerrilla forces based in Iraq. The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/17/world/a-nation-at-war-oil-supply-us-bombs-iranian-guerrilla-forces-based-in-iraq.html
TEXT OF THE ARTICLE:
A NATION AT WAR: OIL SUPPLYAmerican forces have bombed the bases of the main armed Iranian opposition group in Iraq, a guerrilla organization that maintained thousands of fighters with tanks and artillery along Iraq’s border with Iran for more than a decade.
The group, the Mujahedeen Khalq, has been labeled a terrorist organization by the United States since 1997, and Bush administration officials said the group had supported Saddam Hussein’s military. Still, the biggest beneficiary of the strikes will be the Iranian government, which has lost scores of soldiers in recent years to cross-border attacks by the guerrillas seeking to overthrow Iran’s Islamic government.
Defense department officials who described the air attacks, which have received scant public attention, said they had been followed in recent days by efforts by American ground forces to pursue and detain members of the group and its National Liberation Army. Some members of the group were expected to surrender soon, the officials said today.
A senior American military officer said the United States had “bombed the heck” out of at least two of the Mujahedeen group’s bases, including its military headquarters at Camp Ashraf, about 60 miles north of Baghdad.
The only public acknowledgment of the attacks came on Tuesday, when Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met with foreign reporters. In answer to a question, General Myers acknowledged bombing some camps, and said that American forces were ‘’still pursuing elements’‘ of the group inside Iraq.
“We’re still interested in that particular group,” he said. “How that will affect U.S.-Iranian relationships, I think we’re going to have to wait until more time goes by.”
“War Sirens Herald Iran’s Hour of Revenge”; Financial Times; March 24, 2003, Monday Usa Edition 1; Section: Comment & Analysis; Pg. 17; Headline: War Sirens Herald Iran’s Hour Of Revenge; By Khairallah Khairallah
https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/war-sirens-herald-irans-hour-revenge-khairallah/docview/249421127/se-2
Comment & Debate: No more fantasy diplomacy: cut a deal with the mullahs: Iran cannot be prevented from developing nuclear weapons, only delayed. We must negotiate not ratchet up the rhetoric, The Guardian (London) - Final Edition, February 7, 2006 Tuesday, GUARDIAN COMMENT AND DEBATE PAGES ; Pg. 31, 1095 words, Polly Toynbee
Zeveloff, N. (2016, August 23). EXCLUSIVE: Does aid to Palestinians subsidize the families of terrorists? The Forward.
https://forward.com/israel/348017/exclusive-does-aid-to-palestinians-subsidize-the-families-of-terrorists/
Black, E. (2013). Financing the flames: How tax-exempt and public money fuel a culture of confrontation and terror in Israel. Dialog Press.
Zanotti, J., & Sharp, J. M. (2017, December 12). Taylor Force Act: Palestinian terrorism-related payments and U.S. aid (CRS Insight No. IN10761). Congressional Research Service.
https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20171212_IN10761_e9c488b9605f396b587eb138fa2ac642b314b624.pdf
U.S. Department of State. (2021). Country reports on terrorism 2020.
https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2020/
Hubbard, B. (2020, June 3). Hamas has built a secret terror headquarters in Turkey. Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-hamas-turkey-specialreport-idUSKBN23A1KQ
Arango, T., & Yeginsu, C. (2014, August 9). How Turkey became the gateway for the Islamic State. The New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/world/europe/turkey-isis.html
Berman, L., & The Times of Israel Staff. (2024, July 28). Turkey’s Erdogan appears to issue open threat to invade Israel over war in Gaza. The Times of Israel.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/turkeys-erdogan-appears-to-issue-open-threat-to-invade-israel-over-war-in-gaza/
Security Council Report. (2006, January). Lebanon/Israel (UNIFIL), January 2006 monthly forecast.
https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2006-01/lookup_c_glkwlemtisg_b_1313235.php
Badran, T. (2021, September 16). Lebanon’s new Hezbollah government [Opinion]. Newsweek.
https://www.newsweek.com/lebanons-new-hezbollah-government-opinion-1629346
Alaaldin, R. (2017, April 28). The Popular Mobilization Force is turning Iraq into an Iranian client state. Brookings Institution.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-popular-mobilization-force-is-turning-iraq-into-an-iranian-client-state/
“[Iranian-backed] PMF control of Iraqi transnational highways, military bases, and border patrol posts have allowed [the pro-Iranian] militias [in Iraq] to assist in Iranian smuggling networks and generate independent revenue streams outside of $2.16 billion in federal funding. Iran-backed militias are also politically cushioned by the Fatah alliance in the Iraqi parliament and extensive positive media coverage among Iraq’s more than 100 outlets.
Iran may not have a monopoly over Iraq’s institutions, but its influence in Baghdad is powerful. Tehran-aligned Shiite groups play a dynamic role in exacerbating gridlock, fragmentation, and paralysis for any government wishing to create a more autonomous Iraq. Baghdad’s institutional authority over Iran-supported militias remains only on paper as the government struggles to regulate militia activity.”
SOURCE: Rose, C. (2020, August 12). Iraq: Caught between the U.S., Iran and itself. New Lines Institute.
https://newlinesinstitute.org/political-systems/governance/iraq-caught-between-the-u-s-iran-and-itself/
Bickerton, I. J. (2026, February 22). Renouncing claims to the West Bank. In Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Jordan/Renouncing-claims-to-the-West-Bank
Jordan Times. (2025, February 6). King receives President Abbas, reiterates Jordan’s unwavering support for Palestinians. The Jordan Times. https://jordantimes.com/news/local/king-receives-president-abbas-reiterates-jordans-unwavering-support-palestinians
Quilliam, N. (2025, May 2). Jordan’s ban on the Muslim Brotherhood is no surprise but comes against a dangerous backdrop. Chatham House.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/05/jordans-ban-muslim-brotherhood-no-surprise-comes-against-dangerous-backdrop
Wagemakers, J. (2020). The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Cambridge University Press.
https://www.cambridge.org/il/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/middle-east-government-politics-and-policy/muslim-brotherhood-jordan
Feldstein, J. (2026, February 7). Banning Muslim Brotherhood: A good start. The Jerusalem Post.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-885652
Quilliam, N. (2025, May 2). Jordan’s ban on the Muslim Brotherhood is no surprise but comes against a dangerous backdrop. Chatham House.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/05/jordans-ban-muslim-brotherhood-no-surprise-comes-against-dangerous-backdrop
For the Saudi role in the arming of ISIS, see:
United States Department of State. (2000). Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XVIII, Arab–Israeli Dispute, 1964–1967: Document 356: Intelligence Memorandum 1, Palestine Arab Terrorist Organizations. U.S. Government Printing Office.
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v18/d356
Counter Extremism Project. (n.d.). Muslim Brotherhood in Qatar. Counter Extremism Project.
https://www.counterextremism.com/content/muslim-brotherhood-qatar
Neuman, B. (2005, September 19). A new reality on the Egypt-Gaza border (Part I): Contents of the new Israel-Egypt agreement (PolicyWatch No. 518). The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-reality-egypt-gaza-border-part-i-contents-new-israel-egypt-agreement
Fabian, E. (2024, June 1). IDF releases footage of Gaza-Egypt border tunnels used by Hamas to smuggle weapons. The Times of Israel.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-releases-footage-of-gaza-egypt-border-tunnels-used-by-hamas-to-smuggle-weapons/ (timesofisrael.com)
Siboni, G., & Winner, E. (2025, October 30). Egypt’s force buildup in the Sinai: A growing challenge from the south. Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
https://jiss.org.il/en/egypts-force-buildup-in-the-sinai-a-growing-challenge-from-the-south/ (jiss.org.il)
Congressional Research Service. (2025). U.S. foreign aid to Israel (RL33222). EveryCRSReport.
https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL33222.html
Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (n.d.). Major arms sales. U.S. Department of Defense.
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales
Defense Security Cooperation Agency. (n.d.). Major arms sales: Israel. U.S. Department of Defense.
https://www.dsca.mil/Press-Media/Major-Arms-Sales/Tag/47509/israel
Forum on the Arms Trade. (n.d.). Major arms sales notifications tracker.
https://
www.forumarmstrade.org/major-arms-sales-notifications-tracker.html
U.S. Department of State. (n.d.). Section 655 annual military assistance reports.
https://www.state.gov/section-655-annual-military-assistance/
good article, I'm sifting through the numbers. I may have once sent you a little article I found in the National Review from 1967, it's a high quality 'secondary source' that mentions specific pentagon reports and specific dollar figures making it abundantly clear that even in 1967 the Pentagon was funding and arming the Arabs to a far greater extent than our great 'friend' Israel. This 'special relationship' agitprop seemed to start later.
The next thing you can help with (I can't seem to get this into too many skulls):
1) Trump is clearly presiding over the most virulently antisemitic mass media propaganda campaign in US history. So he is the DRIVER of this. He is the leader of the US.
Or if he's *not* doing it then 2) he is just a mere actor playing a role.
Most people just cannot accept the fact that '1' is an indisputable fact. Normally, the propaganda program of a country is attributed to the leader--but somehow this doesn't apply to Trump (maybe we should call him 'Teflon Don', a nickname used for a mafia guy years ago).